The first quote
“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” The quote, from a postapocalyptic novel by the author G. Michael Hopf, sums up a stunningly pervasive cyclical vision of history.
How does this quote affect modern policies?
It also infects modern strategic thinking, especially about non-Western foes.
Where did this idea come from?
Western cultural memory fixes on the Goths, Vandals, and Huns who broke the Roman frontier, but it is quick to forget the rather longer list of nonstate peoples broken by the Romans.
Wrong assumptions
As a consequence, this cyclical model of history, which never explained anything terribly well, is adopted now as hard-nosed wisdom about the world by policymakers and the general public alike. However, on closer inspection, it turns out to be a child’s version of history: simplistic and unhelpful. The invincible barbarian (or insurgent, or terrorist) was always just a mirage, a trap in strategic thinking.
Millitary strength today is not a product of hard times
We might start by abandoning the pretense that military strength is a product of either “hard times” or “strong men.”